What would change this
Catalysts
Pick a pair. The model recomputes the whole ranking assuming one central bank shifts its rate path by 50bp, 25bp, nothing, or the reverse — and shows whether the signal holds, falls below threshold, or flips direction. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
GBPAUD
ENTRY ZONELONG · gap 1.142 · full pair page
BoE · next decision 2026-09-17 (38d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.582 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 1.431 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 1.142 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.783 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.500 | LONG | Signal holds |
RBA · next decision 2026-08-11 (1d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.423 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.783 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 1.142 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 1.362 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.474 | LONG | Signal holds |
No single policy move in this range flips the direction or pushes the gap below threshold. This reading rests on more than one decision.