Pair
GBPAUD
ENTRY ZONEMacro favours the base currency and price sits low in range.
Price
1.91238
-0.43% this week
Macro side
LONG
gap 1.282
1Y position
23.4%
1.85500 – 2.10027
10Y position
62.2%
1Y LOW
The entry window stays open while price is below 1.94084. 2.01443 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
BoE · next decision 2026-09-17 (42d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.836 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 1.635 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 1.282 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.840 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.451 | LONG | Signal holds |
RBA · next decision 2026-08-11 (5d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.216 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.752 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 1.282 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 1.660 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.910 | LONG | Signal holds |
Scenarios that would end this setup: RBA hikes 50bp → falls below threshold. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
4 entry-zone pairs share a currency with GBPAUD: GBPAUD, AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURAUD. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.