Pair
USDJPY
WEAKMacro gap (0.28) is within noise. No divergence to trade.
Price
158.393
-3% this week
Macro side
SHORT
gap 0.281
1Y position
68.6%
146.217 – 163.979
10Y position
91.3%
DEEP HIGH
The entry window stays open while price is above 157.762. 152.434 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
Fed · next decision 2026-09-16 (41d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.605 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.218 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.281 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.753 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.093 | SHORT | Signal holds |
BoJ · next decision 2026-09-18 (43d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.917 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.648 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.281 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.236 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.783 | LONG | Direction flips |
Scenarios that would end this setup: Fed hikes 50bp → direction flips; Fed hikes 25bp → direction flips; Fed holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold; BoJ holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold; BoJ signals a cut → direction flips; BoJ cuts 50bp → direction flips. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
4 entry-zone pairs share a currency with USDJPY: NZDJPY, AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURJPY. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.