Pair
USDCHF
TRAPShort and long horizons disagree. Avoid scaling in.
Price
0.81247
-0.11% this week
Macro side
LONG
gap 0.531
1Y position
86.1%
0.76290 – 0.82047
10Y position
18.3%
CONFLICT
The entry window stays open while price is below 0.78305. 0.80032 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
Fed · next decision 2026-09-16 (41d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.212 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.950 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.531 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.022 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.424 | SHORT | Direction flips |
SNB · next decision 2026-09-24 (49d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.511 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.015 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.531 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.891 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.124 | LONG | Signal holds |
Scenarios that would end this setup: Fed signals a cut → falls below threshold; Fed cuts 50bp → direction flips; SNB hikes 50bp → direction flips; SNB hikes 25bp → falls below threshold. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.