Pair
USDCAD
LATEMacro favours the base currency but price already ran.
Price
1.40104
-0.18% this week
Macro side
LONG
gap 0.924
1Y position
68.9%
1.34840 – 1.42478
10Y position
72%
DEEP HIGH
The entry window stays open while price is below 1.37513. 1.39805 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
Fed · next decision 2026-09-16 (41d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.603 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 1.342 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.924 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.417 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.029 | SHORT | Direction flips |
BoC · next decision 2026-09-09 (34d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.114 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.411 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.924 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 1.281 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.511 | LONG | Signal holds |
Scenarios that would end this setup: Fed cuts 50bp → direction flips; BoC hikes 50bp → direction flips. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.