Pair
NZDUSD
WAITPrice is mid-range.
Price
0.58713
+1.18% this week
Macro side
SHORT
gap 0.762
1Y position
56.4%
0.55842 – 0.60933
10Y position
18.9%
NEUTRAL
The entry window stays open while price is above 0.59151. 0.57624 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
RBNZ · next decision 2026-08-19 (13d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.211 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.449 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.762 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 1.211 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.684 | SHORT | Signal holds |
Fed · next decision 2026-09-16 (41d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.595 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 1.236 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.762 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.309 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.019 | LONG | Direction flips |
Scenarios that would end this setup: RBNZ hikes 50bp → falls below threshold; Fed cuts 50bp → direction flips. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
2 entry-zone pairs share a currency with NZDUSD: NZDJPY, AUDUSD. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.