Pair
NZDCHF
TRAPShort and long horizons disagree. Avoid scaling in.
Price
0.47671
+1.03% this week
Macro side
SHORT
gap 0.232
1Y position
83.9%
0.44680 – 0.48247
10Y position
10.5%
CONFLICT
The entry window stays open while price is above 0.46999. 0.45928 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
RBNZ · next decision 2026-08-19 (13d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.256 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.042 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.232 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.657 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.191 | SHORT | Signal holds |
SNB · next decision 2026-09-24 (49d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.297 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.729 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.232 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.090 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.305 | LONG | Direction flips |
Scenarios that would end this setup: RBNZ hikes 50bp → direction flips; RBNZ hikes 25bp → direction flips; RBNZ holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold; SNB holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold; SNB signals a cut → direction flips; SNB cuts 50bp → direction flips. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.