Pair
NZDCAD
WEAKMacro gap (0.16) is within noise. No divergence to trade.
Price
0.82172
+0.94% this week
Macro side
LONG
gap 0.162
1Y position
83.8%
0.78580 – 0.82866
10Y position
30.8%
1Y HIGH
The entry window stays open while price is below 0.80080. 0.81366 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
RBNZ · next decision 2026-08-19 (13d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.654 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.438 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.162 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.265 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.801 | SHORT | Direction flips |
BoC · next decision 2026-09-09 (34d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.907 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.336 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.162 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.484 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.697 | LONG | Signal holds |
Scenarios that would end this setup: RBNZ holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold; RBNZ signals a cut → direction flips; RBNZ cuts 50bp → direction flips; BoC hikes 50bp → direction flips; BoC hikes 25bp → direction flips; BoC holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.