Pair
GBPUSD
WAITPrice is mid-range.
Price
1.34533
+0.64% this week
Macro side
LONG
gap 0.627
1Y position
52.9%
1.30117 – 1.38468
10Y position
76.9%
NEUTRAL
The entry window stays open while price is below 1.33040. 1.35545 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
BoE · next decision 2026-09-17 (42d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.339 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 1.050 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.627 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.167 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.212 | SHORT | Direction flips |
Fed · next decision 2026-09-16 (41d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.259 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.120 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.627 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 1.155 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.570 | LONG | Signal holds |
Scenarios that would end this setup: BoE signals a cut → falls below threshold; BoE cuts 50bp → direction flips; Fed hikes 50bp → direction flips; Fed hikes 25bp → falls below threshold. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
2 entry-zone pairs share a currency with GBPUSD: GBPAUD, AUDUSD. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.