Pair
GBPJPY
LATEMacro favours the base currency but price already ran.
Price
213.083
-2.38% this week
Macro side
LONG
gap 0.346
1Y position
72.4%
196.245 – 219.516
10Y position
93.2%
DEEP HIGH
The entry window stays open while price is below 204.390. 211.371 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
BoE · next decision 2026-09-17 (42d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.076 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.764 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.346 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.047 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.318 | SHORT | Direction flips |
BoJ · next decision 2026-09-18 (43d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.299 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.021 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.346 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.855 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.388 | LONG | Signal holds |
Scenarios that would end this setup: BoE signals a cut → direction flips; BoE cuts 50bp → direction flips; BoJ hikes 50bp → direction flips; BoJ hikes 25bp → direction flips. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
4 entry-zone pairs share a currency with GBPJPY: GBPAUD, NZDJPY, AUDJPY, EURJPY. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.