Pair
GBPCHF
TRAPShort and long horizons disagree. Avoid scaling in.
Price
1.09196
+0.44% this week
Macro side
LONG
gap 1.158
1Y position
94.1%
1.02980 – 1.09584
10Y position
19.6%
CONFLICT
The entry window stays open while price is below 1.05291. 1.07273 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
BoE · next decision 2026-09-17 (42d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.669 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 1.487 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 1.158 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.742 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.382 | LONG | Signal holds |
SNB · next decision 2026-09-24 (49d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.130 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.653 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 1.158 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 1.500 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.711 | LONG | Signal holds |
Scenarios that would end this setup: SNB hikes 50bp → falls below threshold. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.