Pair
GBPCAD
LATEMacro favours the base currency but price already ran.
Price
1.88420
+0.46% this week
Macro side
LONG
gap 1.551
1Y position
80.6%
1.80180 – 1.90406
10Y position
96%
DEEP HIGH
The entry window stays open while price is below 1.83759. 1.86827 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
BoE · next decision 2026-09-17 (42d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 2.057 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 1.878 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 1.551 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 1.139 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.783 | LONG | Signal holds |
BoC · next decision 2026-09-09 (34d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.531 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 1.051 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 1.551 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 1.889 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 2.094 | LONG | Signal holds |
No single policy move in this range flips the direction or pushes the gap below threshold. This setup rests on more than one decision.