Pair
EURUSD
TRAPShort and long horizons disagree. Avoid scaling in.
Price
1.15274
+0.52% this week
Macro side
SHORT
gap 0.206
1Y position
28.9%
1.13254 – 1.20236
10Y position
65.8%
CONFLICT
The entry window stays open while price is above 1.17792. 1.15698 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
ECB · next decision 2026-09-10 (35d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.658 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.281 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.206 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.696 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.060 | SHORT | Signal holds |
Fed · next decision 2026-09-16 (41d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.992 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.666 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.206 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.286 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.679 | LONG | Direction flips |
Scenarios that would end this setup: ECB hikes 50bp → direction flips; ECB hikes 25bp → direction flips; ECB holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold; Fed holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold; Fed signals a cut → direction flips; Fed cuts 50bp → direction flips. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
3 entry-zone pairs share a currency with EURUSD: AUDUSD, EURAUD, EURJPY. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.