Pair
EURGBP
LATEMacro favours the quote currency but price already fell.
Price
0.85631
-0.18% this week
Macro side
SHORT
gap 0.833
1Y position
23.9%
0.84680 – 0.88653
10Y position
36.2%
1Y LOW
The entry window stays open while price is above 0.87262. 0.86071 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
ECB · next decision 2026-09-10 (35d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.032 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.349 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.833 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 1.313 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.659 | SHORT | Signal holds |
BoE · next decision 2026-09-17 (42d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.458 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 1.209 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.833 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.425 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.106 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
Scenarios that would end this setup: ECB hikes 50bp → direction flips; BoE cuts 50bp → falls below threshold. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
3 entry-zone pairs share a currency with EURGBP: GBPAUD, EURAUD, EURJPY. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.