Pair
EURCHF
TRAPShort and long horizons disagree. Avoid scaling in.
Price
0.93589
+0.34% this week
Macro side
LONG
gap 0.325
1Y position
81.7%
0.89812 – 0.94434
10Y position
9.2%
CONFLICT
The entry window stays open while price is below 0.91430. 0.92816 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
ECB · next decision 2026-09-10 (35d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.093 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.780 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.325 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.199 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.638 | SHORT | Direction flips |
SNB · next decision 2026-09-24 (49d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.728 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.200 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.325 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.701 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.955 | LONG | Signal holds |
Scenarios that would end this setup: ECB signals a cut → direction flips; ECB cuts 50bp → direction flips; SNB hikes 50bp → direction flips; SNB hikes 25bp → direction flips. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
2 entry-zone pairs share a currency with EURCHF: EURAUD, EURJPY. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.