Pair
EURCAD
WAITPrice is mid-range.
Price
1.61399
+0.29% this week
Macro side
LONG
gap 0.719
1Y position
62%
1.56090 – 1.64657
10Y position
90.9%
NEUTRAL
The entry window stays open while price is below 1.59088. 1.61659 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
ECB · next decision 2026-09-10 (35d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.487 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 1.174 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.719 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.194 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.246 | SHORT | Direction flips |
BoC · next decision 2026-09-09 (34d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.335 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.194 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.719 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 1.093 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.344 | LONG | Signal holds |
Scenarios that would end this setup: ECB signals a cut → falls below threshold; ECB cuts 50bp → direction flips; BoC hikes 50bp → direction flips; BoC hikes 25bp → falls below threshold. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
2 entry-zone pairs share a currency with EURCAD: EURAUD, EURJPY. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.