Pair
EURAUD
ENTRY ZONEMacro favours the base currency and price sits low in range.
Price
1.63581
-0.28% this week
Macro side
LONG
gap 0.450
1Y position
12.1%
1.61114 – 1.81576
10Y position
49.6%
1Y LOW
The entry window stays open while price is below 1.68276. 1.74414 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
ECB · next decision 2026-09-10 (34d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.219 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.903 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.450 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.069 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.501 | SHORT | Direction flips |
RBA · next decision 2026-08-11 (4d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.587 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.073 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.450 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.834 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.106 | LONG | Signal holds |
Scenarios that would end this setup: ECB signals a cut → direction flips; ECB cuts 50bp → direction flips; RBA hikes 50bp → direction flips; RBA hikes 25bp → direction flips. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
5 entry-zone pairs share a currency with EURAUD: GBPAUD, AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURAUD, EURJPY. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.