Pair
CHFJPY
WAITPrice is mid-range.
Price
194.948
-2.88% this week
Macro side
SHORT
gap 0.811
1Y position
58.7%
181.482 – 204.412
10Y position
91.2%
NEUTRAL
The entry window stays open while price is above 196.387. 189.508 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
SNB · next decision 2026-09-24 (49d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.240 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.325 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.811 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 1.116 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.307 | SHORT | Signal holds |
BoJ · next decision 2026-09-18 (43d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.299 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 1.099 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.811 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.351 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.233 | LONG | Direction flips |
Scenarios that would end this setup: SNB hikes 50bp → direction flips; BoJ cuts 50bp → direction flips. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
3 entry-zone pairs share a currency with CHFJPY: NZDJPY, AUDJPY, EURJPY. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.