Pair
CADJPY
WAITPrice is mid-range.
Price
113.020
-2.85% this week
Macro side
SHORT
gap 1.205
1Y position
63.5%
105.191 – 117.514
10Y position
87.2%
NEUTRAL
The entry window stays open while price is above 113.201. 109.504 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
BoC · next decision 2026-09-09 (34d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.153 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.720 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 1.205 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 1.508 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.696 | SHORT | Signal holds |
BoJ · next decision 2026-09-18 (43d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.692 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 1.493 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 1.205 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.745 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.160 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
Scenarios that would end this setup: BoC hikes 50bp → falls below threshold; BoJ cuts 50bp → falls below threshold. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
3 entry-zone pairs share a currency with CADJPY: NZDJPY, AUDJPY, EURJPY. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.