Pair
CADCHF
TRAPShort and long horizons disagree. Avoid scaling in.
Price
0.57975
+0.05% this week
Macro side
SHORT
gap 0.394
1Y position
66.5%
0.56000 – 0.58968
10Y position
8.4%
CONFLICT
The entry window stays open while price is above 0.57929. 0.57039 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
BoC · next decision 2026-09-09 (34d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.664 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.171 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.394 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.842 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.158 | SHORT | Signal holds |
SNB · next decision 2026-09-24 (49d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.451 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.959 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.394 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.057 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.376 | LONG | Direction flips |
Scenarios that would end this setup: BoC hikes 50bp → direction flips; BoC hikes 25bp → direction flips; SNB signals a cut → direction flips; SNB cuts 50bp → direction flips. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.