Pair
AUDUSD
ENTRY ZONEMacro favours the quote currency and price sits high in range.
Price
0.70333
+1.06% this week
Macro side
SHORT
gap 0.655
1Y position
71.7%
0.64150 – 0.72774
10Y position
56.3%
1Y HIGH
The entry window stays open while price is above 0.69756. 0.67168 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
RBA · next decision 2026-08-11 (5d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.395 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.129 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.655 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 1.037 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.298 | SHORT | Signal holds |
Fed · next decision 2026-09-16 (41d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.360 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 1.085 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.655 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Signals a cut | 0.138 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.313 | LONG | Direction flips |
Scenarios that would end this setup: RBA hikes 50bp → direction flips; RBA hikes 25bp → falls below threshold; Fed signals a cut → falls below threshold; Fed cuts 50bp → direction flips. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
4 entry-zone pairs share a currency with AUDUSD: GBPAUD, AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURAUD. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.