Pair
AUDNZD
WEAKMacro gap (0.11) is within noise. No divergence to trade.
Price
1.19716
-0.18% this week
Macro side
LONG
gap 0.107
1Y position
77.3%
1.09230 – 1.22801
10Y position
87.1%
DEEP HIGH
The entry window stays open while price is below 1.13980. 1.18051 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
RBA · next decision 2026-08-11 (5d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.129 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.588 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.107 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.211 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.433 | SHORT | Direction flips |
RBNZ · next decision 2026-08-19 (13d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.351 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.151 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.107 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.515 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.034 | LONG | Signal holds |
Scenarios that would end this setup: RBA holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold; RBA signals a cut → direction flips; RBA cuts 50bp → direction flips; RBNZ hikes 50bp → direction flips; RBNZ hikes 25bp → direction flips; RBNZ holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
5 entry-zone pairs share a currency with AUDNZD: GBPAUD, NZDJPY, AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURAUD. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.