Pair
AUDCHF
TRAPShort and long horizons disagree. Avoid scaling in.
Price
0.57088
+0.85% this week
Macro side
SHORT
gap 0.125
1Y position
97%
0.50790 – 0.57281
10Y position
25.2%
CONFLICT
The entry window stays open while price is above 0.55009. 0.53062 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
RBA · next decision 2026-08-11 (5d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.908 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.434 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.125 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.580 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.913 | SHORT | Signal holds |
SNB · next decision 2026-09-24 (49d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.175 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.685 | SHORT | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.125 | SHORT | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.317 | LONG | Direction flips |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.625 | LONG | Direction flips |
Scenarios that would end this setup: RBA hikes 50bp → direction flips; RBA hikes 25bp → direction flips; RBA holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold; SNB holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold; SNB signals a cut → direction flips; SNB cuts 50bp → direction flips. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
4 entry-zone pairs share a currency with AUDCHF: GBPAUD, AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURAUD. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.