Pair
AUDCAD
WEAKMacro gap (0.27) is within noise. No divergence to trade.
Price
0.98430
+0.77% this week
Macro side
LONG
gap 0.269
1Y position
89.3%
0.89040 – 0.99556
10Y position
76.1%
DEEP HIGH
The entry window stays open while price is below 0.92721. 0.95875 marks where the gap is considered priced in — a natural profit-taking area, not a forecast.
What would change this
Catalysts
The ranking recomputed assuming one central bank moves its rate path. Arithmetic on the inputs, not a forecast of how price reacts.
RBA · next decision 2026-08-11 (5d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 1.301 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.828 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.269 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.186 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Cuts 50bp | 0.521 | SHORT | Direction flips |
BoC · next decision 2026-09-09 (34d)
| Scenario | New gap | Side | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 50bp | 0.781 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Hikes 25bp | 0.290 | SHORT | Direction flips |
| Holds, tone unchanged | 0.269 | LONG | Falls below threshold |
| Signals a cut | 0.709 | LONG | Signal holds |
| Cuts 50bp | 1.014 | LONG | Signal holds |
Scenarios that would end this setup: RBA holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold; RBA signals a cut → direction flips; RBA cuts 50bp → direction flips; BoC hikes 50bp → direction flips; BoC hikes 25bp → direction flips; BoC holds, tone unchanged → falls below threshold. Everything else leaves the signal intact, though the gap changes.
Concentration
4 entry-zone pairs share a currency with AUDCAD: GBPAUD, AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURAUD. Taking several of them is one position expressed multiple times, not diversification.